Investment Insights from Greenwich Ivy Capital
Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes

24 May 2022

Where does the Equity Market Go from Here?

We wanted to give a brief update on where the equity market stands today. What is happening now is similar to what happened in Q4 2018 when the Federal Reserve was in a tightening cycle. We touched upon this in our last Market Note. During that period, the 10-Year Treasury yield rose and the S&P 500 fell into a bear market.

Equity EPS estimates initially held up when the market started to fall, so that the P/E multiple of the S&P 500 effectively compressed – but ultimately the EPS estimates started to come down as well…

Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes

06 Apr 2022

What Happens When the Fed Starts to Tighten?

We wanted to share our thoughts on recent developments regarding Fed tightening. What does it mean when the U.S. Federal Reserve System (the “Fed”) begins to tighten? And what implications does this have for the economy and for the equity markets?

It is strange to think that a certain quasi-governmental organization comprised of bureaucrats and economists, sitting in their ivory tower, can so firmly control the trajectory of the U.S. economy and securities markets. As Americans, we are taught to think that we live in a capitalist utopia of free markets, where the unfettered exchange of goods and services occurs based on market-clearing prices determined by the fundamental intersection of supply and demand. Alas, that is not the case…

Greenwich Ivy Capital
Market Notes

06 Mar 2022

Thoughts on Ukraine

We wanted to share our thoughts on recent equity market developments, specifically pertaining to events in Ukraine and the market’s reaction to them.

The above is an image of the Berlin Wall right before its fall, circa 1989. Standing atop the wall with open arms, jubilant, victorious, are residents of West Germany. Standing on the ground are soldiers of East Germany, with arms crossed in trepidation about what is to occur next. We must remember that the Berlin Wall was built by East Germany, to keep the East Germans in. It was not built by West Germany, to keep the East Germans out. We will come back to this point in a moment.

Europe finds itself at a similar juncture today. Russia is invading Ukraine, with the goal of setting up a puppet Ukrainian government beholden to the Kremlin and operating under a Communist regime…

Greenwich Ivy Capital
Greenwich Ivy Long-Short Fund

2022 Q1 Jan-Mar

Quarterly Letter

Dear Shareholders,

The Greenwich Ivy Long-Short Fund (the “Fund” or “GIVYX”) was down 2.05% during Q1 2022, net of fees. By comparison, total return for the S&P 500 ETF was negative 4.62% (NYSE: SPY) and total return for the MSCI ACWI ETF was negative 5.67% (NASDAQ: ACWI). Also worth noting that during the worst point of Q1, the Fund was down only approximately 6% for the year, which was considerably better than the performance of the indices.

It is useful to disaggregate the performance of the Fund by month…